Guyana will continue to experience robust economic expansion even as countries in Latin America and the Caribbean face less favourable growth conditions and brace for a slowdown in their productive sectors.
This is according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its new Regional Economic Outlook report for the Western Hemisphere.
Guyana should record a 38.4% real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate this year, that report noted. Next year, the country’s growth should continue with an expansion of 26.6% expected.
The debt taken on by the government is projected to be about 29.9% of GDP while a 7.2% inflation rate is also expected. This debt refers to all external financial obligations including loans taken while inflation, generally, is the rate of price increases over a period of time.
Notably, Guyana is the only country expecting double-digit growth. St. Vincent and the Grenadines (6.2%) and Panama (6.0%) are the countries with the next highest growth rates.
The entire Latin America and Caribbean region expects a 2.3% growth rate this year while growth among the non-tourism dependent countries in the Caribbean (that is, Haiti, Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago) should be 13.6% this year.
Further, the IMF projects a 1.6% growth rate for South American and a 3.8% growth rate for the bloc of countries encompassing Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic.
So what do these figures mean?
Real GDP is an inflation-adjusted measure for a country’s total economic output in a given year. In simpler terms, the real GDP reflects the value of all goods and services produced in an economy (such as Guyana’s economy) and that value is adjusted for price increases or decreases.
In Guyana’s case, massive oil finds offshore are contributing to the high economic growth rates expected.
“… growth in the Caribbean commodity exporters will slow down in 2023 and further in 2024 as these countries face less favourable external conditions, although Guyana will continue to grow at a robust pace following the discovery of sizable oil reserves,” the IMF said.
The slowdown in other countries has been attributed to a weaker external environment, severe weather conditions and a softening demand for tourism services.
In September, President Dr. Irfaan Ali announced that Guyana recorded a 59.5% economic growth rate at the half year mark with the non-oil economy growing by 12.3%.
Based on the mid-year report, the government projects that real GDP growth for the entire 2023 will be 28.2% while non-oil growth alone will be 9.3%.
